Analysis of MH370 by Chris Goodfellow

Dear All,

This is the best analysis I have seen on what happened to MH370. An analysis by an ex-pilot himself Chris Goodfellow.

“Chris Goodfellow, Shared publicly – Mar 14, 2014 on Google+ . . . . .


MH370 A different point of view. Pulau Langkawi 13,000 runway.

A lot of speculation about MH370. Terrorism, hijack, meteors. I cannot believe the analysis on CNN – almost disturbing. I tend to look for a more simple explanation of this event.

Loaded 777 departs midnight from Kuala to Beijing. Hot night. Heavy aircraft. About an hour out across the gulf towards Vietnam the plane goes dark meaning the transponder goes off and secondary radar tracking goes off.

Two days later we hear of reports that Malaysian military radar (which is a primary radar meaning the plane is being tracked by reflection rather than by transponder interrogation response) has tracked the plane on a southwesterly course back across the Malay Peninsula into the straits of Malacca.

When I heard this I immediately brought up Google Earth and I searched for airports in proximity to the track towards southwest.

The left turn is the key here. This was a very experienced senior Captain with 18,000 hours. Maybe some of the younger pilots interviewed on CNN didn’t pick up on this left turn. We old pilots were always drilled to always know the closest airport of safe harbor while in cruise. Airports behind us, airports abeam us and airports ahead of us. Always in our head. Always. Because if something happens you don’t want to be thinking what are you going to do – you already know what you are going to do. Instinctively when I saw that left turn with a direct heading I knew he was heading for an airport. Actually he was taking a direct route to Palau Langkawi a 13,000 foot strip with an approach over water at night with no obstacles. He did not turn back to Kuala Lampur because he knew he had 8,000 foot ridges to cross. He knew the terrain was friendlier towards Langkawi and also a shorter distance.

Take a look on Google Earth at this airport. This pilot did all the right things. He was confronted by some major event onboard that made him make that immediate turn back to the closest safe airport.
For me the loss of transponders and communications makes perfect sense if a fire. There was most likely a fire or electrical fire. In the case of fire the first response if to pull all the main busses and restore circuits one by one until you have isolated the bad one.

If they pulled the busses the plane indeed would go silent. It was probably a serious event and they simply were occupied with controlling the plane and trying to fight the fire. Aviate, Navigate and lastly communicate. There are two types of fires. Electrical might not be as fast and furious and there might or might not be incapacitating smoke. However there is the possibility given the timeline that perhaps there was an overheat on one of the front landing gear tires and it blew on takeoff and started slowly burning. Yes this happens with underinflated tires. Remember heavy plane, hot night, sea level, long run takeoff. There was a well known accident in Nigeria of a DC8 that had a landing gear fire on takeoff. A tire fire once going would produce horrific incapacitating smoke. Yes, pilots have access to oxygen masks but this is a no no with fire. Most have access to a smoke hood with a filter but this will only last for a few minutes depending on the smoke level. (I used to carry one of my own in a flight bag and I still carry one in my briefcase today when I fly).

What I think happened is that they were overcome by smoke and the plane just continued on the heading probably on George (autopilot) until either fuel exhaustion or fire destroyed the control surfaces and it crashed. I said four days ago you will find it along that route – looking elsewhere was pointless.

This pilot, as I say, was a hero struggling with an impossible situation trying to get that plane to Langkawi. No doubt in my mind. That’s the reason for the turn and direct route. A hijack would not have made that deliberate left turn with a direct heading for Langkawi. It would probably have weaved around a bit until the hijackers decided on where they were taking it.

Surprisingly none of the reporters , officials, other pilots interviewed have looked at this from the pilot’s viewpoint. If something went wrong where would he go? Thanks to Google earth I spotted Langkawi in about 30 seconds, zoomed in and saw how long the runway was and I just instinctively knew this pilot knew this airport. He had probably flown there many times. I guess we will eventually find out when you help me spread this theory on the net and some reporters finally take a look on Google earth and put 2 and 2 together. Also a look at the age and number of cycles on those nose tires might give us a good clue too.

Fire in an aircraft demands one thing – you get the machine on the ground as soon as possible. There are two well remembered experiences in my memory. The AirCanada DC9 which landed I believe in Columbus Ohio in the eighties. That pilot delayed descent and bypassed several airports. He didn’t instinctively know the closest airports. He got it on the ground eventually but lost 30 odd souls. In the 1998 crash of Swissair DC-10 off Nova Scotia was another example of heroic pilots. They were 15 minutes out of Halifax but the fire simply overcame them and they had to ditch in the ocean. Just ran out of time. That fire incidentally started when the aircraft was about an hour out of Kennedy. Guess what the transponders and communications were shut off as they pulled the busses.

Get on Google Earth and type in Pulau Langkawi and then look at it in relation to the radar track heading. 2+2=4 That for me is the simple explanation why it turned and headed in that direction.

Smart pilot. Just didn’t have the time.”

#Pray For MH370

Assalamualaikum all,

Since Saturday, 8 March 2014, we have been shocked with the news, MH370 plane is missing during a flight from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing, China. Now already more than 48 hours have passed and still the plane is missing. Oh God! Oh Allah! Please help us find the plane. The whole world is concerned with this issue.

My personal advice is to pray for the well-being of all in the MH370 flight and also to their next of kin. Everywhere I go, people are expressing sadness and sympathy for the families of those on the flight. They are praying for a miracle and they are praying for the families of the passengers to be given strength.

Bullish Oil and Gas market

Surely now we feel the heat. Swelling heat until we soak with our own perspiration when outdoors. Despite that heat, the market, especially in Oil and Gas is hot too. According to the Malaysian Oil and Gas Services Council (MOGSC), Malaysia’s oil and gas industry will remain competitive in the country being a major regional player with a bullish outlook. Interesting right!

The council’s president said Malaysia’s positive track record, underpinned by Petronas, had boosted confidence among regional market players in doing business with the country’s own participants.

bullish market

bullish market

“The current favorable environment, with better oil prices and continued government support, will also boost the prospects for the industry. The prospects are bullish for at least the next five years. Now is also the time for foreign companies, who intend to develop and grow their businesses over the long term, to come in and participate in Malaysia’s O&G industry,” he said.

Malaysia’s oil production will continue to be buoyant given the strong demand for oil in the region and on turning the country into the foremost oil & gas hub in Asia Pacific by 2017, MOGSC President said Malaysia had actually achieved the target.

“Malaysia is the only country to have put in so much effort to groom its oil & gas industry. If you look at other Asian countries, you can’t see this kind of scenario”.

Malaysia’s oil reserves are currently ranked the third largest in Asia Pacific, after China and India.  It is also a net exporter of oil & gas with nearly 40 per cent of the country’s total revenue derived from petroleum resources.

So guys this is the market sector, which offer so much benefit not only to the nation, but to more than 300,000 people who work in this sector. Just as the shale growth phenomenon takes off, the market faces a looming new reality that more than 10,000 baby boomers per day will begin retiring in the market alone. The same fate or worse affect other global markets. The good news is the demand for experience, skills and technology expertise among workers in the oil and gas industry means that many will be coaxed into working longer or auctioning off their expertise to refill their retirement accounts left shattered by the great global recession. The demand for replacement skills is expected to swell the ranks of engineering, technology developers, science, math and software training programs and universities to meet that need. But the bigger need will be welders, plumbers, electricians, skilled machinists and other crafts to install and operate the equipment and support the technology deployment around the world.

So what are you waiting for…Let’s jump into the market and get dirty with the oil and gas!

Have a good day.